Fairplay Bucureşti W 0–4 Universitatea Alexandria W

Fairplay Bucureşti W

FT

0 – 4

Universitatea Alexandria W

3/19/2023

Liga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 2Stadionul Comunal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W32%

×Draw17%

Universitatea Alexandria W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fairplay Bucureşti WExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Alexandria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

3.26

Fairplay Bucureşti W

2.60

Universitatea Alexandria W

3.26

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

2.23

creates per match

2.69

3.84

allows per match

2.98

creates per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W

2.23

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.69

allows per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3.84

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes89
No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fairplay Bucureşti W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–35%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Fairplay Bucureşti W or draw

49%

Fairplay Bucureşti W or Universitatea Alexandria W

83%

Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W

68%

Winning margin

Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+

18%

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals

92%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals

73%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals

47%

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals

96%

Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals

83%

Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)

38%

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fairplay Bucureşti W at home — creates 2.23, concedes 3.84 · 31 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 2.23 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.60

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 3.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more

32%

level

17%

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more

51%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff