Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Universitatea Alexandria W vs Csikszereda MC W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
FT
1 – 3
Csikszereda MC W
Csikszereda MC W
10/13/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 6Stadionul Peco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W44%
×Draw21%
Csikszereda MC W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.03
Csikszereda MC W
1.78

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 49 away

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.75
Csikszereda MC W
1.63

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.93
Csikszereda MC W
1.31

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par
Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Csikszereda MC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw
65%
Universitatea Alexandria W or Csikszereda MC W
79%
Draw or Csikszereda MC W
56%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
25%
Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
87%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
60%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
33%
Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals
83%
Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals
53%
Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
56%
Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Csikszereda MC W away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.03

Csikszereda MC W attack 1.63 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
44%
level
21%
Csikszereda MC W scores more
35%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Universitatea Alexandria W 1–3 Csikszereda MC W

Csikszereda MC W beat Universitatea Alexandria W 3-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Peco in Alexandria.