Csikszereda MC W 3–2 Universitatea Alexandria W

Csikszereda MC W

FT

3 – 2

Universitatea Alexandria W

8/27/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 1Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Csikszereda MC W60%

×Draw17%

Universitatea Alexandria W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Csikszereda MC WExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Alexandria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.94

Csikszereda MC W

3.10

Universitatea Alexandria W

1.94

Csikszereda MC W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 45 away

3.22

creates per match

2.69

1.18

allows per match

2.98

creates per match

Csikszereda MC W

3.22

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.69

allows per match

Csikszereda MC W

1.18

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda MC W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Csikszereda MC W or draw

77%

Csikszereda MC W or Universitatea Alexandria W

83%

Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W

40%

Winning margin

Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+

41%

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals

95%

Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals

81%

Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals

58%

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals

86%

Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals

58%

Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)

72%

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda MC W at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda MC W attack 3.22 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 3.10

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Csikszereda MC W scores more

60%

level

17%

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more

23%

Csikszereda MC W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Csikszereda MC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff