Universitatea Alexandria W 2–3 Arad W

Universitatea Alexandria W

FT

2 – 3

Arad W

11/28/2020

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 6Stadionul Comunal Buzescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W46%

×Draw20%

Arad W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea Alexandria WExpected goals in this matchArad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

2.06

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.41

Arad W

2.06

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

2.75

creates per match

2.19

1.93

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.75

Arad W

2.19

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W

1.93

Arad W

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Arad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Arad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw

66%

Universitatea Alexandria W or Arad W

80%

Draw or Arad W

54%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+

28%

Arad W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals

91%

Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals

69%

Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals

43%

Arad W 1+ goals

87%

Arad W 2+ goals

61%

Arad W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)

58%

Arad W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Arad W away — creates 2.19, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Arad W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.41

Arad W attack 2.19 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more

46%

level

20%

Arad W scores more

34%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff