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Arad W vs Universitatea Alexandria W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Arad W
Arad W
FT
3 – 3
Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
9/25/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 4Stadionul Sânicolau Mic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Arad W50%
×Draw18%
Universitatea Alexandria W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arad W
2.86
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.29

Arad W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

creates per match

Arad W
2.74
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.69

allows per match

Arad W
1.90
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.98

finishing

Arad W+0.00on par
Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arad W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Arad W or draw
68%
Arad W or Universitatea Alexandria W
82%
Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W
50%

Winning margin

Arad W wins by 2+
32%
Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arad W 1+ goals
94%
Arad W 2+ goals
77%
Arad W 3+ goals
53%
Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
90%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
66%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Arad W (draw refunded)
61%
Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arad W at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arad W attack 2.74 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.86

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Arad W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arad W scores more
50%
level
18%
Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
32%

Arad W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Arad W 3–3 Universitatea Alexandria W

Arad W and Universitatea Alexandria W drew 3-3 in Liga 1 Feminin on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Sânicolau Mic in Arad.