Universitario 4–1 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Cristal

R. Ureña 81'

É. Flores 70'

M. Pérez 67'

A. Polo 33'

S. González 20'

5/12/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Universitario49%

×Draw25%

Sporting Cristal26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.05

Universitario

1.56

Sporting Cristal

1.05

Universitario creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.70

creates per match

1.44

0.66

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Universitario

1.70

Sporting Cristal

1.44

allows per match

Universitario

0.66

Sporting Cristal

1.43

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

Universitario+0.24scores more

Sporting Cristal+0.56scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

74%

Universitario or Sporting Cristal

75%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

51%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

25%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

79%

Universitario 2+ goals

46%

Universitario 3+ goals

21%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

65%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

28%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

66%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.66 · 17 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.70 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sporting Cristal attack 1.44 + Universitario defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Universitario scores more

49%

level

25%

Sporting Cristal scores more

26%

Universitario at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Polo

Universitario · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

S. González↳ J. Grimaldo

31'

Martín Pérez GuedesPenalty cancelled

33'

A. Polo

67'

M. Pérez↳ A. Polo

68'

Martín Pérez Guedes

69'

C. Gonzáles← M. Pérez

69'

J. Concha← H. Calcaterra

70'

J. Pretell← M. Távara

70'

É. Flores

72'

J. Murrugarra← É. Flores

78'

M. Castro← J. Alarcón

78'

Í. Ávila← M. Cauteruccio

81'

R. Ureña↳ J. Concha

86'

D. Dorregaray← Á. Valera

86'

H. Ancajima← A. Polo

87'

I. Wisdom← S. González

87'

A. Hohberg← J. Grimaldo

90+2'

Gianfranco Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioSporting

Overview

55%Possession45%

22Total Shots11

7Corners5

7Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots11

9On Target4

5Off Target3

8Blocked4

11Inside Box4

11Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

363Total Passes301

311Accurate Passes237

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Primera División: Universitario 4–1 Sporting Cristal

Universitario beat Sporting Cristal 4-1 in Primera División on May 12, 2024.

Goals: S. González (20'), A. Polo (33'), M. Pérez (67'), É. Flores (70'), R. Ureña (81').

Universitario controlled possession (55%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.

Universitario vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Universitario 4–1 Sporting Cristal