Sporting Cristal 2–1 Universitario: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Universitario

F. Pacheco 67'

Gustavo Cazonatti 29'

J. Rivera 86'

10/24/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Nacional de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Sporting Cristal50%

×Draw24%

Universitario26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.17

Sporting Cristal

1.70

Universitario

1.17

Sporting Cristal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.57

creates per match

1.39

0.94

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.57

Universitario

1.39

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.94

Universitario

0.83

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.30scores more

Universitario-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

74%

Sporting Cristal or Universitario

76%

Draw or Universitario

50%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

27%

Universitario wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

82%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

51%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

24%

Universitario 1+ goals

69%

Universitario 2+ goals

33%

Universitario 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

65%

Universitario (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.94 · 15 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.57 + Universitario defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Universitario attack 1.39 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

50%

level

24%

Universitario scores more

26%

Sporting Cristal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. González

Sporting Cristal · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

H. Calcaterra

23'

R. Urena

26'

I. Avila

29'

Gustavo Cazonatti↳ S. González

46'

J. Murrugarra← R. Ureña

46'

J. Concha← H. Calcaterra

57'

J. E. Pretell Panta

66'

F. Pacheco← Í. Ávila

66'

J. Lora← N. Pasquini

67'

F. Pacheco↳ S. González

68'

G. Costa← M. Pérez

68'

J. Rivera← É. Flores

80'

N. Cabanillas← S. Portocarrero

81'

M. Távara← J. Pretell

81'

L. Iberico← M. Cauteruccio

86'

J. Rivera↳ Á. Valera

88'

L. Iberico

90+1'

G. Chávez← L. Sosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingUniversitario

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots17

3Corners5

17Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots17

4On Target2

2Off Target9

1Blocked6

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

269Total Passes428

183Accurate Passes324

68%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Primera División: Sporting Cristal 2–1 Universitario

Sporting Cristal beat Universitario 2-1 in Primera División on October 24, 2024.

Goals: Gustavo Cazonatti (29'), F. Pacheco (67'), J. Rivera (86').

Universitario controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Lima in Lima.

Sporting Cristal vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Sporting Cristal 2–1 Universitario