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Universitario vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2018

Universitario
Universitario
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
3/29/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Universitario54%
×Draw24%
Sport Huancayo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.67
Sport Huancayo
0.95

Universitario creates 76% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.83
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

Universitario
0.84
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
79%
Universitario or Sport Huancayo
76%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
46%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
29%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
81%
Universitario 2+ goals
50%
Universitario 3+ goals
23%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
61%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
25%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
72%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.84 · 147 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.83 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Universitario defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universitario scores more
54%
level
24%
Sport Huancayo scores more
21%

Universitario at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitario vs Sport Huancayo

Universitario beat Sport Huancayo 3-1 in Primera División on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.