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Sport Huancayo vs Universitario — Primera División 2018

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario
Universitario
8/11/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Sport Huancayo40%
×Draw27%
Universitario33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.33
Universitario
1.17

Sport Huancayo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 147 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.64
Universitario
1.26

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.08
Universitario
1.02

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
67%
Sport Huancayo or Universitario
73%
Draw or Universitario
60%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
18%
Universitario wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
74%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
38%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
15%
Universitario 1+ goals
69%
Universitario 2+ goals
33%
Universitario 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
55%
Universitario (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 145 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.64 + Universitario defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.33

Universitario attack 1.26 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
40%
level
27%
Universitario scores more
33%

Sport Huancayo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 1–1 Universitario

Sport Huancayo and Universitario drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.