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Universitario vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

Universitario
Universitario
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
8/19/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Universitario56%
×Draw24%
Real Garcilaso20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.71
Real Garcilaso
0.91

Universitario creates 88% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 39 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.83
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

Universitario
0.84
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
80%
Universitario or Real Garcilaso
76%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
44%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
31%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
82%
Universitario 2+ goals
51%
Universitario 3+ goals
24%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
60%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
23%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
74%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.84 · 147 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.83 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Universitario defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Universitario scores more
56%
level
24%
Real Garcilaso scores more
20%

Universitario at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitario vs Real Garcilaso

Real Garcilaso beat Universitario 1-0 in Primera División on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.