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Real Garcilaso vs Universitario — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario
Universitario
11/10/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso44%
×Draw27%
Universitario29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.35
Universitario
1.05

Real Garcilaso creates 29% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 147 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Universitario
1.26

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Universitario
1.02

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
71%
Real Garcilaso or Universitario
73%
Draw or Universitario
56%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
20%
Universitario wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
74%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
39%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
15%
Universitario 1+ goals
65%
Universitario 2+ goals
28%
Universitario 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
60%
Universitario (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Universitario defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.35

Universitario attack 1.26 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
44%
level
27%
Universitario scores more
29%

Real Garcilaso at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Garcilaso vs Universitario

Universitario beat Real Garcilaso 1-0 in Primera División on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.