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Universitario vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Universitario
Universitario
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
J. Rivera 70', 50'
L. Quiñónez 29'
4/3/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Universitario42%
×Draw27%
LDU de Quito30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.32
LDU de Quito
1.07

Universitario creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.06
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Universitario
1.31
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
70%
Universitario or LDU de Quito
73%
Draw or LDU de Quito
58%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
19%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
73%
Universitario 2+ goals
38%
Universitario 3+ goals
15%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
66%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
29%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
58%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.06 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Universitario defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Universitario scores more
42%
level
27%
LDU de Quito scores more
30%

Universitario at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. RiveraUniversitarioUniversitario · F
8.3

Match Events

13'
M. Saravia
20'
M. Angulo
25'
J. RiveraGoal Disallowed - Foul
29'
L. Quiñónez
41'
J. Concha← C. Gonzáles
46'
D. Romero← J. Quintero
50'
J. Rivera↳ M. Pérez
62'
J. Charcopa← A. Arce
63'
J. Espinoza← M. Angulo
66'
S. Portocarrero
70'
J. Rivera
73'
S. González← Richard Mina
75'
J. Murrugarra← M. Pérez
75'
N. Cabanillas← S. Portocarrero
83'
N. Cabanillas
84'
C. Olivares← É. Flores
84'
D. Dorregaray← J. Rivera
86'
S. Gonzalez Baquero
86'
L. Estupiñán← J. Julio

Possession

38%Universitario

Shots

10Universitario

Pass accuracy

46%Universitario

Statistics

UniversitarioLDU
Overview
38%Possession62%
10Total Shots9
0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.33
1Corners1
10Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots9
3On Target3
4Off Target3
3Blocked3
3Inside Box2
7Outside Box7
Passing
38%Possession62%
278Total Passes461
193Accurate Passes373
69%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Universitario 2–1 LDU de Quito

Universitario beat LDU de Quito 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 3, 2024.

Goals: L. Quiñónez (29'), J. Rivera (50', 70').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (62%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.