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LDU de Quito vs Universitario — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Universitario
Universitario
L. Alzugaray 67'
A. Arce 44'
5/28/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

LDU de Quito71%
×Draw19%
Universitario9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.99
Universitario
0.56

LDU de Quito creates 255% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.29
Universitario
0.38

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.75
Universitario
1.69

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
91%
LDU de Quito or Universitario
81%
Draw or Universitario
29%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
45%
Universitario wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
86%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
59%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
32%
Universitario 1+ goals
43%
Universitario 2+ goals
11%
Universitario 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
88%
Universitario (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Universitario away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Universitario defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.99

Universitario attack 0.38 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
71%
level
19%
Universitario scores more
9%

LDU de Quito at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
L. PioviLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · M
8.2

Match Events

44'
A. Arce
45+2'
José Quintero
46'
M. Saravia← A. Corzo
56'
H. Calcaterra← J. Concha
56'
C. Gonzáles← J. Murrugarra
60'
G. Villamíl← M. Angulo
60'
J. Rivera← Á. Valera
63'
Christofer Gonzáles
67'
L. Alzugaray
74'
D. Dorregaray← É. Flores
83'
Christofer Gonzáles
83'
Christofer Gonzáles
87'
A. Alvarado← L. Alzugaray
87'
L. Estupiñán← J. Quintero
90+1'
A. Zanini← Richard Mina
90+1'
M. Parrales← M. Estrada

Possession

61%LDU

Shots

20LDU

Pass accuracy

53%LDU

Statistics

LDUUniversitario
Overview
61%Possession39%
20Total Shots10
2.39Expected Goals (xG)0.22
5Corners3
7Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots10
5On Target1
9Off Target6
6Blocked3
12Inside Box5
8Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
493Total Passes323
414Accurate Passes241
84%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
0.29Goals Prevented0.29
Discipline
7Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Universitario

LDU de Quito beat Universitario 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 28, 2024.

Goals: A. Arce (44'), L. Alzugaray (67').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.