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Universitario vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Universitario
Universitario
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
N. Quina 71'
A. Valera 48', 20'
C. Ortiz 59'
J. Sánchez 8'
5/19/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group A - 5Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Universitario45%
×Draw26%
Independiente del Valle29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario
1.45
Independiente del Valle
1.11

Universitario creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

creates per match

Universitario
1.06
Independiente del Valle
0.92

allows per match

Universitario
1.31
Independiente del Valle
1.83

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Universitario or draw
71%
Universitario or Independiente del Valle
74%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
55%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+
22%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals
77%
Universitario 2+ goals
42%
Universitario 3+ goals
18%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
67%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
30%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)
61%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.06 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Universitario defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Universitario scores more
45%
level
26%
Independiente del Valle scores more
29%

Universitario at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
A. ValeraUniversitarioUniversitario · F
8.0

Match Events

8'
J. Sánchez↳ C. Pellerano
20'
A. Valera↳ A. Corzo
48'
A. Valera
59'
C. Ortiz↳ R. Schunke
60'
J. Murillo← J. Sánchez
65'
J. Zevallos← R. Guarderas
67'
L. Rugel
70'
L. Segovia
71'
N. Quina↳ A. Corzo
72'
C. Ortiz
72'
J. Chávez← L. Segovia
72'
B. García← L. Faravelli
75'
C. Pellerano
78'
A. Corzo
80'
E. Mera← P. Vite
85'
H. Novick← A. Alfageme

Possession

36%Universitario

Shots

7Universitario

Pass accuracy

45%Universitario

Statistics

UniversitarioIndependiente
Overview
36%Possession64%
7Total Shots16
1Corners8
11Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots16
6On Target5
1Off Target9
0Blocked2
7Inside Box11
0Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
334Total Passes580
229Accurate Passes492
69%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Universitario 3–2 Independiente del Valle

Universitario beat Independiente del Valle 3-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 19, 2021.

Goals: J. Sánchez (8'), A. Valera (20', 48'), C. Ortiz (59'), N. Quina (71').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Lima.