Independiente del Valle 1–0 Universitario

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universitario

4/9/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Independiente del Valle70%

×Draw20%

Universitario10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.59

Independiente del Valle

1.98

Universitario

0.59

Independiente del Valle creates 236% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

2.28

creates per match

0.38

0.80

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Universitario

0.38

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Universitario

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

90%

Independiente del Valle or Universitario

80%

Draw or Universitario

30%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

44%

Universitario wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

86%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

59%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

31%

Universitario 1+ goals

45%

Universitario 2+ goals

12%

Universitario 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

87%

Universitario (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Universitario away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Universitario defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.98

Universitario attack 0.38 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

70%

level

20%

Universitario scores more

10%

Independiente del Valle at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff