Universitario 0–2 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Coquimbo Unido

N. Johansen 49'

C. Zavala 13'

4/15/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Universitario41%

×Draw29%

Coquimbo Unido30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.99

Universitario

1.20

Coquimbo Unido

0.99

Universitario creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

1.06

creates per match

0.67

1.31

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Universitario

1.06

Coquimbo Unido

0.67

allows per match

Universitario

1.31

Coquimbo Unido

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario+0.00on par

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

70%

Universitario or Coquimbo Unido

71%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

59%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

18%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

70%

Universitario 2+ goals

34%

Universitario 3+ goals

12%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

63%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

26%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

57%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.06 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Coquimbo Unido attack 0.67 + Universitario defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Universitario scores more

41%

level

29%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

30%

Universitario at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

D. Sanchez

Coquimbo Unido · G

8.2

Match Events

13'

C. Zavala↳ J. Cornejo

25'

C. Inga← M. Di Benedetto

33'

S. Gassama

46'

L. Riveros← C. Zavala

49'

N. Johansen↳ B. Chandia

59'

H. Fertoli← Miguel Silveira

59'

B. Reyna← S. Gassama

64'

D. Glaby← B. Chandia

64'

G. Vadala← A. E. Azocar Machuca

71'

A. Santamaria← W. Riveros

71'

H. Calcaterra← J. Carabali

73'

L. Pratto← N. Johansen

80'

S. Cordero← A. Camargo

90+2'

A. Santamaria

90+3'

D. Glaby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioCoquimbo

Overview

68%Possession32%

8Total Shots5

0.31Expected Goals (xG)1.86

7Corners2

20Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots5

4On Target2

2Off Target2

2Blocked1

4Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

515Total Passes254

419Accurate Passes156

81%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

1.04Goals Prevented1.04

Discipline

20Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0