Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Universitario: Result & Stats

Coquimbo Unido

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Universitario

G. Vadala 72', 50'

A. Valera 33'

5/8/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coquimbo Unido69%

×Draw21%

Universitario10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coquimbo UnidoExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.53

Coquimbo Unido

1.84

Universitario

0.53

Coquimbo Unido creates 247% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

2.00

creates per match

0.38

0.67

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido

2.00

Universitario

0.38

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido

0.67

Universitario

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw

90%

Coquimbo Unido or Universitario

79%

Draw or Universitario

31%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

42%

Universitario wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

84%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

55%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

28%

Universitario 1+ goals

41%

Universitario 2+ goals

10%

Universitario 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

87%

Universitario (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Universitario away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 2.00 + Universitario defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Universitario attack 0.38 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more

69%

level

21%

Universitario scores more

10%

Coquimbo Unido at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Vadala

Coquimbo Unido · M

8.0

Match Events

21'

Matías Di Benedetto

25'

Anderson Santamaría

33'

A. Valera

46'

S. Cordero← A. Camargo

46'

W. Riveros← A. Santamaria

50'

G. Vadala↳ F. Salinas

55'

Alex Valera

66'

Manuel Fernández

69'

L. Pratto← N. Johansen

69'

A. E. Azocar Machuca← B. Chandia

72'

G. Vadala

74'

L. Alzugaray← A. Valera

75'

J. Rivera← E. Flores

81'

H. Fertoli← M. Perez Guedes

86'

Miguel Silveira← J. Concha

90'

D. Glaby← G. Vadala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoquimboUniversitario

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots9

1.60Expected Goals (xG)0.82

9Corners3

13Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target2

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

333Total Passes313

227Accurate Passes203

68%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.15Goals Prevented-0.15

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Coquimbo Unido vs Universitario

Coquimbo Unido beat Universitario 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 8, 2026.

Goals: A. Valera (33'), G. Vadala (50', 72').

Coquimbo Unido controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.

Coquimbo Unido vs Universitario — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Coquimbo Unido vs Universitario