Universitario 4–0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Universitario

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

É. Flores 68', 11'

Á. Valera 56'

J. Rivera 21'

5/25/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Universitario63%

×Draw22%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.76

Universitario

1.86

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.76

Universitario creates 145% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.72

creates per match

0.92

0.59

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Universitario

1.72

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.92

allows per match

Universitario

0.59

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

2.01

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

Universitario-0.05on par

Club Deportivo Los Chankas-0.47scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

85%

Universitario or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

78%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

37%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

38%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

84%

Universitario 2+ goals

55%

Universitario 3+ goals

28%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

53%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

18%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

81%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.59 · 6 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.72 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.86

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.92 + Universitario defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Universitario scores more

63%

level

22%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

15%

Universitario at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

É. Flores

Universitario · M

9.5

Match Events

11'

É. Flores

21'

J. Rivera

46'

N. Cabanillas← S. Portocarrero

49'

Matías Di BenedettoCard upgrade

50'

Matías Di Benedetto

55'

Rodrigo Ureña

55'

Ángel Ledesma

56'

Á. Valera↳ H. Calcaterra

58'

J. Concha← H. Calcaterra

60'

G. Sánchez← A. Chávez

64'

A. Robles← E. Mogollón

68'

É. Flores↳ R. Ureña

69'

C. Gonzáles← É. Flores

75'

H. Ancajima← Á. Valera

75'

D. Dorregaray← J. Rivera

86'

O. Takeuchi← C. López

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioClub

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots9

9Corners2

11Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots9

8On Target2

7Off Target4

3Blocked3

13Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

344Total Passes406

266Accurate Passes312

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2