Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3–1 Universitario

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Universitario

O. Takeuchi 48'

F. Torres 38'

J. Manzaneda 14'

J. Rivera 60' (pen)

11/22/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 19Estadio Municipal Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas36%

×Draw27%

Universitario37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.25

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.23

Universitario

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.48

creates per match

1.51

0.99

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.48

Universitario

1.51

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.99

Universitario

0.98

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.44scores more

Universitario-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

63%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Universitario

73%

Draw or Universitario

64%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

15%

Universitario wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

71%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

35%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

13%

Universitario 1+ goals

71%

Universitario 2+ goals

36%

Universitario 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

49%

Universitario (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 13 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.48 + Universitario defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Universitario attack 1.51 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

36%

level

27%

Universitario scores more

37%

Universitario at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Torres

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · F

8.9

Match Events

14'

J. Manzaneda↳ F. Torres

38'

F. Torres↳ B. Rivero

42'

Williams Riveros

46'

J. Concha← J. Velez

48'

O. Takeuchi↳ J. Manzaneda

57'

David Martin Gonzales

59'

A. Valera← E. Flores

60'

J. RiveraPenalty

63'

G. Costa← M. Perez

72'

F. E. Espinoza Vega← J. Manzaneda

72'

J. Castillo← J. Rivera

73'

P. Reyna← J. Carabali

79'

R. Vega← H. Gonzalez

79'

I. Camargo← P. Bueno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubUniversitario

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots7

0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.18

2Corners6

10Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots7

7On Target3

7Off Target4

0Blocked0

4Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

352Total Passes369

281Accurate Passes307

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1