Universitario 3–1 Cienciano: Result & Stats

Universitario

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Cienciano

É. Flores 44'

W. Riveros 35'

M. Pérez 16'

J. Estrada 50'

10/27/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Universitario51%

×Draw26%

Cienciano24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.96

Universitario

1.54

Cienciano

0.96

Universitario creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

1.66

creates per match

1.23

0.70

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Universitario

1.66

Cienciano

1.23

allows per match

Universitario

0.70

Cienciano

1.42

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Universitario+0.34scores more

Cienciano+0.02on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universitario or draw

76%

Universitario or Cienciano

74%

Draw or Cienciano

49%

Winning margin

Universitario wins by 2+

26%

Cienciano wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Universitario 1+ goals

79%

Universitario 2+ goals

45%

Universitario 3+ goals

20%

Cienciano 1+ goals

62%

Cienciano 2+ goals

25%

Cienciano 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Universitario (draw refunded)

68%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.70 · 16 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario attack 1.66 + Cienciano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cienciano attack 1.23 + Universitario defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universitario scores more

51%

level

26%

Cienciano scores more

24%

Universitario at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Polo

Universitario · M

7.6

Match Events

14'

Christian Cueva

16'

M. Pérez↳ A. Polo

35'

W. Riveros↳ J. Concha

44'

É. Flores↳ A. Polo

45'

Rodrigo Ureña

50'

J. Estrada↳ J. Romagnoli

64'

H. Calcaterra← J. Concha

64'

D. La Torre← P. Fuentes

65'

J. Rivera← É. Flores

71'

R. Palomino← G. Ritacco

72'

J. Murrugarra← R. Ureña

72'

S. Portocarrero← N. Cabanillas

76'

A. Rodríguez← C. Cueva

77'

Jorge Murrugarra

77'

Marco Aldair Rodríguez

80'

G. Costa← M. Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioCienciano

Overview

52%Possession48%

23Total Shots5

1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.37

7Corners1

10Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots5

7On Target2

12Off Target3

4Blocked0

13Inside Box2

10Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

377Total Passes350

301Accurate Passes260

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2