Cienciano 0–0 Universitario: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universitario

5/21/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 16Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cienciano43%

×Draw27%

Universitario31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.13

Cienciano

1.39

Universitario

1.13

Cienciano creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

1.39

0.86

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Cienciano

1.95

Universitario

1.39

allows per match

Cienciano

0.86

Universitario

0.83

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Cienciano-0.03on par

Universitario-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

69%

Cienciano or Universitario

73%

Draw or Universitario

57%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

20%

Universitario wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

75%

Cienciano 2+ goals

40%

Cienciano 3+ goals

16%

Universitario 1+ goals

68%

Universitario 2+ goals

31%

Universitario 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

58%

Universitario (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 12 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.95 + Universitario defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Universitario attack 1.39 + Cienciano defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cienciano scores more

43%

level

27%

Universitario scores more

31%

Cienciano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Í. Espinoza

Cienciano · G

7.6

Match Events

26'

Andy Polo

27'

J. Concha← M. Pérez

31'

Marco Aldair Rodríguez

31'

Jorge Murrugarra

54'

Segundo Portocarrero

62'

Á. Valera← D. Dorregaray

62'

J. Rivera← É. Flores

64'

Paolo Fuentes

68'

G. Ritacco← A. Ramúa

68'

D. La Torre← A. Lecaros

81'

A. Ayarza← J. Guivin

82'

C. Gonzáles← H. Calcaterra

82'

N. Cabanillas← S. Portocarrero

86'

Leonardo Rugel

90+7'

Carlos GarcésPenalty cancelled

90+2'

M. Benítez← A. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CiencianoUniversitario

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots19

5Corners3

13Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots19

2On Target4

8Off Target12

2Blocked3

4Inside Box9

8Outside Box10

Passing

58%Possession42%

425Total Passes292

342Accurate Passes217

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2