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Universitario de Vinto vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo — Primera División 2026

Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
12/6/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 26Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Universitario de Vinto45%
×Draw24%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario de Vinto
1.62
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.31

Universitario de Vinto creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 41 away

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.36
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.34

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.29
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.88

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par
San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

San Antonio Bulo Bulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw
69%
Universitario de Vinto or San Antonio Bulo Bulo
76%
Draw or San Antonio Bulo Bulo
55%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
23%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
80%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
48%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
22%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals
73%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals
38%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
59%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.34 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more
45%
level
24%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more
31%

Universitario de Vinto at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Universitario de Vinto 0–2 San Antonio Bulo Bulo

San Antonio Bulo Bulo beat Universitario de Vinto 2-0 in Primera División on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.