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San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs Universitario de Vinto — Primera División 2026

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
San Antonio Bulo Bulo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
8/12/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo51%
×Draw23%
Universitario de Vinto26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.79
Universitario de Vinto
1.21

San Antonio Bulo Bulo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.95
Universitario de Vinto
0.82

allows per match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1.59
Universitario de Vinto
1.64

finishing

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par
Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Antonio Bulo Bulo ↓

Universitario de Vinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

San Antonio Bulo Bulo or draw
74%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo or Universitario de Vinto
77%
Draw or Universitario de Vinto
49%

Winning margin

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+
28%
Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals
83%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals
53%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals
26%
Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
70%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
34%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)
66%
Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.59 · 44 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.95 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.82 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more
51%
level
23%
Universitario de Vinto scores more
26%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Antonio Bulo Bulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs Universitario de Vinto

San Antonio Bulo Bulo beat Universitario de Vinto 2-1 in Primera División on August 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas in Entre Ríos.