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Universitario de Vinto vs Nacional Potosí — Primera División 2026

Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
11/23/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario de Vinto44%
×Draw25%
Nacional Potosí31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario de Vinto
1.54
Nacional Potosí
1.26

Universitario de Vinto creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 131 away

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.36
Nacional Potosí
1.23

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.29
Nacional Potosí
1.73

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par
Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Nacional Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw
69%
Universitario de Vinto or Nacional Potosí
75%
Draw or Nacional Potosí
56%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
22%
Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
79%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
45%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
20%
Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
72%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
36%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
58%
Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Nacional Potosí attack 1.23 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more
44%
level
25%
Nacional Potosí scores more
31%

Universitario de Vinto at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Universitario de Vinto 2–2 Nacional Potosí

Universitario de Vinto and Nacional Potosí drew 2-2 in Primera División on November 23, 2025.