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Nacional Potosí vs Universitario de Vinto — Primera División 2026

Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
4/11/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Nacional Potosí60%
×Draw22%
Universitario de Vinto18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Potosí
1.94
Universitario de Vinto
0.97

Nacional Potosí creates 100% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 76 away

creates per match

Nacional Potosí
2.23
Universitario de Vinto
0.82

allows per match

Nacional Potosí
1.12
Universitario de Vinto
1.64

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par
Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Universitario de Vinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw
82%
Nacional Potosí or Universitario de Vinto
78%
Draw or Universitario de Vinto
40%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
36%
Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
86%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
58%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
30%
Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
62%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
25%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
76%
Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.23 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.94

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.82 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more
60%
level
22%
Universitario de Vinto scores more
18%

Nacional Potosí at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional Potosí vs Universitario de Vinto

Nacional Potosí beat Universitario de Vinto 1-0 in Primera División on April 11, 2026.