Universitario de Vinto 1–2 Independiente Petrolero

Universitario de Vinto

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Petrolero

T. Tobar 90+5'

D. Porozo 85' (pen)

S. Ibars 58'

8/17/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario de Vinto46%

×Draw24%

Independiente Petrolero30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitario de VintoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.27

Universitario de Vinto

1.65

Independiente Petrolero

1.27

Universitario de Vinto creates 30% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 91 away

1.36

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.36

Independiente Petrolero

1.26

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.29

Independiente Petrolero

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw

70%

Universitario de Vinto or Independiente Petrolero

76%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

54%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

24%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

81%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

49%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

23%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

72%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

36%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

61%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more

46%

level

24%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

30%

Universitario de Vinto at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Tobar

Universitario de Vinto · F

8.0

Match Events

16'

J. Magallanes← J. Mercado

39'

Sebastián Ibars

45+5'

Joaquín Lencinas

46'

D. Porozo← G. Cristaldo

58'

S. Ibars↳ F. Gatti

64'

A. Llano← M. Núñez

64'

G. Cuellar← E. Mendoza

64'

J. Rivas← J. Cuellar

64'

A. Vaca← J. Magallanes

73'

Yosser Suarez

82'

Juan GodoyPenalty confirmed

85'

Julio Vila

85'

A. Bejarano← F. Gatti

85'

D. PorozoPenalty

90+4'

A. Medina← J. Godoy

90+4'

C. Urdininea← D. Navarro

90+5'

T. Tobar↳ C. Ribera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitarioIndependiente

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots15

10Corners5

5Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots15

5On Target5

10Off Target4

1Blocked6

5Inside Box8

11Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

408Total Passes241

354Accurate Passes175

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1