Independiente Petrolero 2–1 Universitario de Vinto

Independiente Petrolero

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Universitario de Vinto

4/25/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Independiente Petrolero53%

×Draw24%

Universitario de Vinto23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchUniversitario de Vinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.01

Independiente Petrolero

1.69

Universitario de Vinto

1.01

Independiente Petrolero creates 67% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 76 away

1.75

creates per match

0.82

1.21

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Universitario de Vinto

0.82

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Universitario de Vinto

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Universitario de Vinto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

77%

Independiente Petrolero or Universitario de Vinto

76%

Draw or Universitario de Vinto

47%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

29%

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

82%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

50%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

24%

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

64%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

27%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

70%

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.82 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

53%

level

24%

Universitario de Vinto scores more

23%

Independiente Petrolero at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff