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Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Universitario de Vinto
Universitario de Vinto
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
3/3/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario de Vinto46%
×Draw24%
Independiente Petrolero30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitario de Vinto
1.65
Independiente Petrolero
1.27

Universitario de Vinto creates 30% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 91 away

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.36
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto
1.29
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw
70%
Universitario de Vinto or Independiente Petrolero
76%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
54%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+
24%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals
81%
Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals
49%
Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals
23%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
72%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
36%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)
61%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more
46%
level
24%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
30%

Universitario de Vinto at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Universitario de Vinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero

Universitario de Vinto beat Independiente Petrolero 2-1 in Primera División on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.