Universitario de Vinto 0–7 Always Ready

Universitario de Vinto

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 4

Always Ready

T. Andrade 79'

R. Ferrufino 70'

B. Sobrero 54' (pen)

D. Torrico 40'

E. Gonzalez 33', 30', 17'

4/27/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Universitario de Vinto35%

×Draw25%

Always Ready39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitario de VintoExpected goals in this matchAlways Ready

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Universitario de Vinto

1.35

Always Ready

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 90 away

1.36

creates per match

1.59

1.29

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.36

Always Ready

1.59

allows per match

Universitario de Vinto

1.29

Always Ready

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitario de Vinto ↓

Always Ready →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Universitario de Vinto or draw

61%

Universitario de Vinto or Always Ready

75%

Draw or Always Ready

65%

Winning margin

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

16%

Always Ready wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

74%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

39%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

15%

Always Ready 1+ goals

76%

Always Ready 2+ goals

42%

Always Ready 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

47%

Always Ready (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Always Ready defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Always Ready attack 1.59 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Universitario de Vinto scores more

35%

level

25%

Always Ready scores more

39%

Always Ready at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

E. Gonzalez↳ F. Saucedo

26'

D. Gimenez

30'

J. Gutierrez

30'

E. Gonzalez↳ F. Saucedo

33'

E. Gonzalez↳ M. Paniagua

34'

T. Tobar

34'

A. Jara← Wagner Pinote

40'

D. Torrico↳ F. Saucedo

42'

G. Canto

43'

D. A. Camacho Almanza

46'

Jose Pinto← P. Lujan

46'

Esdras Mendoza← D. Valda

46'

J. Herrera← G. Canto

46'

B. Sobrero← E. Gonzalez

54'

B. SobreroPenalty

60'

R. Castro

60'

Esdras MendozaGoal Disallowed

62'

R. Castro

63'

J. Maraude← M. Paniagua

63'

R. Ferrufino← D. Torrico

66'

J. Calicho← T. Tobar

70'

R. Ferrufino↳ H. Cuellar

71'

T. Andrade← F. Saucedo

74'

J. Lazarte← M. Nunez

79'

T. Andrade↳ R. Ferrufino

Universitario

Always

1

Baroja

21

Rambal

33

▼

Canto

5

Suarez

2

Medina

13

A

Cuellar

20

A

▼

Saucedo

19

⚽

▼

Torrico

11

Uzeda

44

⚽3

▼

Gonzalez

7

A

▼

1

26

6

2

▼

Valda

10

Castro

8

Almanza

20

▼

Lujan

11

Cuellar

7

▼

Nunez

9

▼

Tobar

90

▼

Pinote

Manager: Thiago Leitão Polieri

34'▲A. Jara←▼Wagner Pinote

46'▲Jose Pinto←▼P. Lujan

46'▲Esdras Mendoza←▼D. Valda

66'▲J. Calicho←▼T. Tobar

74'▲J. Lazarte←▼M. Nunez

Universitario de Vinto substitutes

22Calicho38Magallanes14Alcocer19Alipaz34Jara28Pinto70Mendoza15Ribera12Vera29Aladesanmi17Lazarte21Cuellar

Manager: Julio César Baldivieso Rico

46'▲J. Herrera←▼G. Canto

46'▲B. Sobrero←▼E. Gonzalez

63'▲J. Maraude←▼M. Paniagua

63'▲R. Ferrufino←▼D. Torrico

71'▲T. Andrade←▼F. Saucedo

Always Ready substitutes

99Rodriguez22Herrera49Fuente32Galvez23Andrade31Camacho6Taborga17Maraude9Ferrufino10Sobrero18Rodriguez