Universitario de Vinto vs Always Ready — Primera División 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 78+ matches
Universitario de Vinto35%
Always Ready39%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 78 home / 90 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Universitario de Vinto ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Universitario de Vinto at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches
Always Ready away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Universitario de Vinto attack 1.36 + Always Ready defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35
Always Ready attack 1.59 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Always Ready at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Independiente PetroleroAlways Ready
The Strongest
Bolívar
Royal Pari
Oriente Petrolero
Jorge Wilstermann
Guabirá
Atlético Palmaflor
Nacional Potosí
Santa Cruz
Aurora
Real Tomayapo
Blooming
Real Potosí
San JoséIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Universitario de Vinto host Always Ready on Sunday, 24 November 2024 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: Universitario de Vinto vs Always Ready
Always Ready beat Universitario de Vinto 2-1 in Primera División on November 24, 2024.
Goals: T. Tobar (16' pen), R. Matheus (44' pen, 49').
Always Ready controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 18.
The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.