Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Universidade de Macau vs Tak Chun Ka I — Primeira Divisão 2026

Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
FT
4 – 0
Tak Chun Ka I
Tak Chun Ka I
7/19/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 8Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Universidade de Macau65%
×Draw16%
Tak Chun Ka I19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidade de Macau
3.30
Tak Chun Ka I
1.81

Universidade de Macau creates 82% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

Universidade de Macau
1.54
Tak Chun Ka I
1.13

allows per match

Universidade de Macau
2.50
Tak Chun Ka I
5.06

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par
Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Tak Chun Ka I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw
81%
Universidade de Macau or Tak Chun Ka I
84%
Draw or Tak Chun Ka I
35%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
46%
Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
96%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
83%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
62%
Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals
84%
Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals
54%
Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
77%
Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Tak Chun Ka I away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 5.06 → ÷2 → 3.30

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.13 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more
65%
level
16%
Tak Chun Ka I scores more
19%

Universidade de Macau at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidade de Macau vs Tak Chun Ka I

Universidade de Macau beat Tak Chun Ka I 4-0 in Primeira Divisão on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.