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Tak Chun Ka I vs Universidade de Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Tak Chun Ka I
Tak Chun Ka I
FT
2 – 6
Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
3/10/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 2Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tak Chun Ka I29%
×Draw19%
Universidade de Macau52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tak Chun Ka I
2.02
Universidade de Macau
2.71

Universidade de Macau creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tak Chun Ka I
1.41
Universidade de Macau
1.54

allows per match

Tak Chun Ka I
3.88
Universidade de Macau
2.62

finishing

Tak Chun Ka I+0.00on par
Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tak Chun Ka I ↓

Universidade de Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Tak Chun Ka I or draw
48%
Tak Chun Ka I or Universidade de Macau
81%
Draw or Universidade de Macau
71%

Winning margin

Tak Chun Ka I wins by 2+
15%
Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Tak Chun Ka I 1+ goals
87%
Tak Chun Ka I 2+ goals
60%
Tak Chun Ka I 3+ goals
33%
Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
93%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
75%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Tak Chun Ka I (draw refunded)
36%
Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tak Chun Ka I at home — creates 1.41, concedes 3.88 · 17 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tak Chun Ka I attack 1.41 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.02

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Tak Chun Ka I defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tak Chun Ka I scores more
29%
level
19%
Universidade de Macau scores more
52%

Universidade de Macau at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Tak Chun Ka I 2–6 Universidade de Macau

Universidade de Macau beat Tak Chun Ka I 6-2 in Primeira Divisão on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.