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Universidade de Macau vs Sporting Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
FT
9 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
3/13/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 4Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Universidade de Macau67%
×Draw16%
Sporting Macau18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidade de Macau
3.23
Sporting Macau
1.68

Universidade de Macau creates 92% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Universidade de Macau
1.54
Sporting Macau
0.86

allows per match

Universidade de Macau
2.50
Sporting Macau
4.93

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par
Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Sporting Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw
82%
Universidade de Macau or Sporting Macau
84%
Draw or Sporting Macau
33%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
48%
Sporting Macau wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
96%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
82%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
61%
Sporting Macau 1+ goals
81%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
50%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
79%
Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.23

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more
67%
level
16%
Sporting Macau scores more
18%

Universidade de Macau at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidade de Macau vs Sporting Macau

Universidade de Macau beat Sporting Macau 9-0 in Primeira Divisão on March 13, 2025.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.