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Sporting Macau vs Universidade de Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
FT
2 – 0
Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
7/6/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 6Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Macau33%
×Draw19%
Universidade de Macau47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Macau
2.04
Universidade de Macau
2.45

Universidade de Macau creates 20% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sporting Macau
1.45
Universidade de Macau
1.54

allows per match

Sporting Macau
3.36
Universidade de Macau
2.62

finishing

Sporting Macau+0.00on par
Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Macau ↓

Universidade de Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Sporting Macau or draw
53%
Sporting Macau or Universidade de Macau
81%
Draw or Universidade de Macau
67%

Winning margin

Sporting Macau wins by 2+
17%
Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sporting Macau 1+ goals
87%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
60%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
33%
Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
91%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
70%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
41%
Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Macau at home — creates 1.45, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Macau attack 1.45 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.04

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Sporting Macau defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting Macau scores more
33%
level
19%
Universidade de Macau scores more
47%

Universidade de Macau at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Sporting Macau 2–0 Universidade de Macau

Sporting Macau beat Universidade de Macau 2-0 in Primeira Divisão on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.