Universidade de Macau 1–0 Monte Carlo

Universidade de Macau

FT

1 – 0

Monte Carlo

2/23/2024

Primeira Divisão · Round 1Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Universidade de Macau26%

×Draw21%

Monte Carlo53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidade de MacauExpected goals in this matchMonte Carlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.16

Universidade de Macau

1.48

Monte Carlo

2.16

Monte Carlo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

1.54

creates per match

1.82

2.50

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Universidade de Macau

1.54

Monte Carlo

1.82

allows per match

Universidade de Macau

2.50

Monte Carlo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Monte Carlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Monte Carlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw

47%

Universidade de Macau or Monte Carlo

79%

Draw or Monte Carlo

74%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+

12%

Monte Carlo wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals

77%

Universidade de Macau 2+ goals

43%

Universidade de Macau 3+ goals

19%

Monte Carlo 1+ goals

88%

Monte Carlo 2+ goals

63%

Monte Carlo 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)

33%

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Monte Carlo away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Monte Carlo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Monte Carlo attack 1.82 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more

26%

level

21%

Monte Carlo scores more

53%

Monte Carlo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff