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Monte Carlo vs Universidade de Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
FT
1 – 2
Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
6/22/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 4Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Monte Carlo75%
×Draw14%
Universidade de Macau11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monte Carlo
3.19
Universidade de Macau
1.21

Monte Carlo creates 164% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

creates per match

Monte Carlo
3.75
Universidade de Macau
1.54

allows per match

Monte Carlo
0.88
Universidade de Macau
2.62

finishing

Monte Carlo+0.00on par
Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Carlo ↓

Universidade de Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Monte Carlo or draw
89%
Monte Carlo or Universidade de Macau
86%
Draw or Universidade de Macau
25%

Winning margin

Monte Carlo wins by 2+
56%
Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Monte Carlo 1+ goals
96%
Monte Carlo 2+ goals
82%
Monte Carlo 3+ goals
60%
Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
70%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
34%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)
87%
Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Carlo at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Carlo attack 3.75 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 3.19

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Monte Carlo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Monte Carlo scores more
75%
level
14%
Universidade de Macau scores more
11%

Monte Carlo at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monte Carlo vs Universidade de Macau

Universidade de Macau beat Monte Carlo 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.