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Universidade de Macau vs Lun Lok — Primeira Divisão 2026

Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
FT
1 – 3
Lun Lok
Lun Lok
3/23/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 4Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Universidade de Macau54%
×Draw18%
Lun Lok28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidade de Macau
2.74
Lun Lok
1.98

Universidade de Macau creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Universidade de Macau
1.54
Lun Lok
1.46

allows per match

Universidade de Macau
2.50
Lun Lok
3.93

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par
Lun Lok+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Lun Lok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw
72%
Universidade de Macau or Lun Lok
82%
Draw or Lun Lok
46%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
34%
Lun Lok wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
93%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
75%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
51%
Lun Lok 1+ goals
86%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
59%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
66%
Lun Lok (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Lun Lok away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Lun Lok defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.74

Lun Lok attack 1.46 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more
54%
level
18%
Lun Lok scores more
28%

Universidade de Macau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universidade de Macau vs Lun Lok

Lun Lok beat Universidade de Macau 3-1 in Primeira Divisão on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.