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Lun Lok vs Universidade de Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Lun Lok
Lun Lok
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
3/6/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 3Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lun Lok21%
×Draw16%
Universidade de Macau63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lun Lok
1.81
Universidade de Macau
3.14

Universidade de Macau creates 73% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lun Lok
1.00
Universidade de Macau
1.54

allows per match

Lun Lok
4.73
Universidade de Macau
2.62

finishing

Lun Lok+0.00on par
Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lun Lok ↓

Universidade de Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Lun Lok or draw
37%
Lun Lok or Universidade de Macau
84%
Draw or Universidade de Macau
79%

Winning margin

Lun Lok wins by 2+
10%
Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Lun Lok 1+ goals
84%
Lun Lok 2+ goals
54%
Lun Lok 3+ goals
27%
Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
95%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
81%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Lun Lok (draw refunded)
25%
Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lun Lok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.73 · 22 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lun Lok attack 1.00 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Lun Lok defence 4.73 → ÷2 → 3.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lun Lok scores more
21%
level
16%
Universidade de Macau scores more
63%

Universidade de Macau at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lun Lok vs Universidade de Macau

Universidade de Macau beat Lun Lok 5-1 in Primeira Divisão on March 6, 2025.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.