Universidade de Macau 1–6 Gorilla of the Universe

Universidade de Macau

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 1

Gorilla of the Universe

3/14/2026

Primeira Divisão · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Universidade de Macau36%

×Draw18%

Gorilla of the Universe45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidade de MacauExpected goals in this matchGorilla of the Universe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

2.81

Universidade de Macau

2.52

Gorilla of the Universe

2.81

Gorilla of the Universe creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

1.54

creates per match

3.13

2.50

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Universidade de Macau

1.54

Gorilla of the Universe

3.13

allows per match

Universidade de Macau

2.50

Gorilla of the Universe

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Gorilla of the Universe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Gorilla of the Universe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–25%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw

55%

Universidade de Macau or Gorilla of the Universe

82%

Draw or Gorilla of the Universe

64%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+

21%

Gorilla of the Universe wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals

92%

Universidade de Macau 2+ goals

71%

Universidade de Macau 3+ goals

45%

Gorilla of the Universe 1+ goals

94%

Gorilla of the Universe 2+ goals

76%

Gorilla of the Universe 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)

44%

Gorilla of the Universe (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Gorilla of the Universe away — creates 3.13, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Gorilla of the Universe defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.52

Gorilla of the Universe attack 3.13 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more

36%

level

18%

Gorilla of the Universe scores more

45%

Gorilla of the Universe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gorilla of the Universe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff