Gorilla of the Universe 5–3 Universidade de Macau

Gorilla of the Universe

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Universidade de Macau

6/28/2026

Primeira Divisão · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gorilla of the Universe36%

×Draw18%

Universidade de Macau46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gorilla of the UniverseExpected goals in this matchUniversidade de Macau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

2.96

Gorilla of the Universe

2.63

Universidade de Macau

2.96

Universidade de Macau creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

2.63

creates per match

1.54

4.38

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Gorilla of the Universe

2.63

Universidade de Macau

1.54

allows per match

Gorilla of the Universe

4.38

Universidade de Macau

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gorilla of the Universe+0.00on par

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gorilla of the Universe ↓

Universidade de Macau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–34%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

80%20%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Gorilla of the Universe or draw

54%

Gorilla of the Universe or Universidade de Macau

82%

Draw or Universidade de Macau

64%

Winning margin

Gorilla of the Universe wins by 2+

21%

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Gorilla of the Universe 1+ goals

93%

Gorilla of the Universe 2+ goals

73%

Gorilla of the Universe 3+ goals

48%

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals

95%

Universidade de Macau 2+ goals

79%

Universidade de Macau 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Gorilla of the Universe (draw refunded)

44%

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

85%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gorilla of the Universe at home — creates 2.63, concedes 4.38 · 8 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gorilla of the Universe attack 2.63 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.63

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Gorilla of the Universe defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gorilla of the Universe scores more

36%

level

18%

Universidade de Macau scores more

46%

Universidade de Macau at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff