Universidade de Macau 0–2 CPK: Result & Stats

Universidade de Macau

FT

0 – 2

CPK

5/29/2026

Primeira Divisão · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Universidade de Macau8%

×Draw11%

CPK82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidade de MacauExpected goals in this matchCPK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

3.73

Universidade de Macau

1.15

CPK

3.73

CPK creates 224% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

1.54

creates per match

4.97

2.50

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Universidade de Macau

1.54

CPK

4.97

allows per match

Universidade de Macau

2.50

CPK

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

CPK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–37%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw

18%

Universidade de Macau or CPK

89%

Draw or CPK

92%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+

3%

CPK wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals

68%

Universidade de Macau 2+ goals

32%

Universidade de Macau 3+ goals

11%

CPK 1+ goals

97%

CPK 2+ goals

88%

CPK 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)

9%

CPK (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.15

CPK attack 4.97 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more

8%

level

11%

CPK scores more

82%

CPK at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff