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CPK vs Universidade de Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

CPK
CPK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
5/30/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Championship Round - 2Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

CPK84%
×Draw10%
Universidade de Macau6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CPK
3.60
Universidade de Macau
0.97

CPK creates 271% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

creates per match

CPK
4.59
Universidade de Macau
1.54

allows per match

CPK
0.41
Universidade de Macau
2.62

finishing

CPK+0.00on par
Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CPK ↓

Universidade de Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

CPK or draw
94%
CPK or Universidade de Macau
90%
Draw or Universidade de Macau
16%

Winning margin

CPK wins by 2+
67%
Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

CPK 1+ goals
97%
CPK 2+ goals
86%
CPK 3+ goals
67%
Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
62%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
25%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CPK (draw refunded)
93%
Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CPK at home — creates 4.59, concedes 0.41 · 37 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CPK attack 4.59 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 3.60

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + CPK defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

CPK scores more
84%
level
10%
Universidade de Macau scores more
6%

CPK at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CPK vs Universidade de Macau

CPK beat Universidade de Macau 2-0 in Primeira Divisão on May 30, 2025.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.