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Universidade de Macau vs Chiba — Primeira Divisão 2026

Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
FT
0 – 5
Chiba
Chiba
3/7/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Universidade de Macau26%
×Draw19%
Chiba55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidade de Macau
1.68
Chiba
2.50

Chiba creates 49% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

Universidade de Macau
1.54
Chiba
2.50

allows per match

Universidade de Macau
2.50
Chiba
1.81

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par
Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw
45%
Universidade de Macau or Chiba
81%
Draw or Chiba
74%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
12%
Chiba wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
81%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
50%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
24%
Chiba 1+ goals
92%
Chiba 2+ goals
71%
Chiba 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
32%
Chiba (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Chiba away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Chiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.68

Chiba attack 2.50 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more
26%
level
19%
Chiba scores more
55%

Chiba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Universidade de Macau 0–5 Chiba

Chiba beat Universidade de Macau 5-0 in Primeira Divisão on March 7, 2026.