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Chiba vs Universidade de Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Chiba
Chiba
FT
7 – 1
Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
5/3/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiba59%
×Draw18%
Universidade de Macau23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiba
2.67
Universidade de Macau
1.63

Chiba creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Chiba
2.71
Universidade de Macau
1.54

allows per match

Chiba
1.71
Universidade de Macau
2.62

finishing

Chiba+0.00on par
Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiba ↓

Universidade de Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Chiba or draw
77%
Chiba or Universidade de Macau
82%
Draw or Universidade de Macau
41%

Winning margin

Chiba wins by 2+
39%
Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chiba 1+ goals
93%
Chiba 2+ goals
74%
Chiba 3+ goals
49%
Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
80%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
48%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chiba (draw refunded)
72%
Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiba at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiba attack 2.71 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.67

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Chiba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chiba scores more
59%
level
18%
Universidade de Macau scores more
23%

Chiba at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiba vs Universidade de Macau

Chiba beat Universidade de Macau 7-1 in Primeira Divisão on May 3, 2026.