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Universidade de Macau vs Artilheiros — Primeira Divisão 2026

Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
FT
2 – 4
Artilheiros
Artilheiros
4/4/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Universidade de Macau69%
×Draw14%
Artilheiros16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidade de Macau
3.65
Artilheiros
1.81

Universidade de Macau creates 102% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

creates per match

Universidade de Macau
1.54
Artilheiros
1.13

allows per match

Universidade de Macau
2.50
Artilheiros
5.75

finishing

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par
Artilheiros+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidade de Macau ↓

Artilheiros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Universidade de Macau or draw
84%
Universidade de Macau or Artilheiros
86%
Draw or Artilheiros
31%

Winning margin

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
51%
Artilheiros wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
97%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
87%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
68%
Artilheiros 1+ goals
84%
Artilheiros 2+ goals
54%
Artilheiros 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
81%
Artilheiros (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidade de Macau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.50 · 24 matches

Artilheiros away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Artilheiros defence 5.75 → ÷2 → 3.65

Artilheiros attack 1.13 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Universidade de Macau scores more
69%
level
14%
Artilheiros scores more
16%

Universidade de Macau at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Universidade de Macau 2–4 Artilheiros

Artilheiros beat Universidade de Macau 4-2 in Primeira Divisão on April 4, 2026.