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Artilheiros vs Universidade de Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Artilheiros
Artilheiros
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
7/12/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Artilheiros19%
×Draw15%
Universidade de Macau65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artilheiros
2.00
Universidade de Macau
3.58

Universidade de Macau creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

creates per match

Artilheiros
1.38
Universidade de Macau
1.54

allows per match

Artilheiros
5.63
Universidade de Macau
2.62

finishing

Artilheiros+0.00on par
Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artilheiros ↓

Universidade de Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Artilheiros or draw
35%
Artilheiros or Universidade de Macau
85%
Draw or Universidade de Macau
81%

Winning margin

Artilheiros wins by 2+
9%
Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Artilheiros 1+ goals
86%
Artilheiros 2+ goals
59%
Artilheiros 3+ goals
32%
Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
97%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
86%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Artilheiros (draw refunded)
23%
Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artilheiros at home — creates 1.38, concedes 5.63 · 8 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artilheiros attack 1.38 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Artilheiros defence 5.63 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Artilheiros scores more
19%
level
15%
Universidade de Macau scores more
65%

Universidade de Macau at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Universidade de Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Artilheiros 3–2 Universidade de Macau

Artilheiros beat Universidade de Macau 3-2 in Primeira Divisão on July 12, 2026.