Universidad O&M 2–3 Delfines Del Este

Universidad O&M

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Delfines Del Este

A. Gomez 57' (pen)

R. Caicedo 1'

J. Ramos 58'

S. Lopez 23'

E. Segura de Leon 7'

3/1/2026

Liga Mayor · Winners Stage - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Universidad O&M27%

×Draw22%

Delfines Del Este51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad O&MExpected goals in this matchDelfines Del Este

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.96

Universidad O&M

1.36

Delfines Del Este

1.96

Delfines Del Este creates 44% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

2.00

1.93

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Universidad O&M

1.33

Delfines Del Este

2.00

allows per match

Universidad O&M

1.93

Delfines Del Este

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad O&M+0.00on par

Delfines Del Este+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad O&M ↓

Delfines Del Este →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Universidad O&M or draw

49%

Universidad O&M or Delfines Del Este

78%

Draw or Delfines Del Este

73%

Winning margin

Universidad O&M wins by 2+

11%

Delfines Del Este wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Universidad O&M 1+ goals

74%

Universidad O&M 2+ goals

39%

Universidad O&M 3+ goals

16%

Delfines Del Este 1+ goals

86%

Delfines Del Este 2+ goals

58%

Delfines Del Este 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Universidad O&M (draw refunded)

34%

Delfines Del Este (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad O&M at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Delfines Del Este away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad O&M attack 1.33 + Delfines Del Este defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Delfines Del Este attack 2.00 + Universidad O&M defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universidad O&M scores more

27%

level

22%

Delfines Del Este scores more

51%

Delfines Del Este at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Delfines Del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

R. Caicedo

7'

E. Segura de Leon

23'

S. Lopez

55'

57'

A. GomezPenalty

58'

J. Ramos

84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff