Delfines Del Este 2–2 Universidad O&M

Delfines Del Este

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Universidad O&M

J. Olasagasti 58' (OG)

J. Ramos 31'

S. Abreu 84'

A. Gomez 15'

4/12/2026

Liga Mayor · Winners Stage - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Delfines Del Este34%

×Draw29%

Universidad O&M37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfines Del EsteExpected goals in this matchUniversidad O&M

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.13

Delfines Del Este

1.06

Universidad O&M

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

0.50

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Delfines Del Este

0.50

Universidad O&M

1.25

allows per match

Delfines Del Este

1.00

Universidad O&M

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfines Del Este+0.00on par

Universidad O&M+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfines Del Este ↓

Universidad O&M →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Delfines Del Este or draw

63%

Delfines Del Este or Universidad O&M

71%

Draw or Universidad O&M

66%

Winning margin

Delfines Del Este wins by 2+

13%

Universidad O&M wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Delfines Del Este 1+ goals

65%

Delfines Del Este 2+ goals

29%

Delfines Del Este 3+ goals

9%

Universidad O&M 1+ goals

68%

Universidad O&M 2+ goals

31%

Universidad O&M 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Delfines Del Este (draw refunded)

48%

Universidad O&M (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfines Del Este at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Universidad O&M away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfines Del Este attack 0.50 + Universidad O&M defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Universidad O&M attack 1.25 + Delfines Del Este defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Delfines Del Este scores more

34%

level

29%

Universidad O&M scores more

37%

Universidad O&M at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universidad O&M will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Gomez

31'

J. Ramos

58'

J. OlasagastiOwn goal

84'

S. Abreu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff