Universidad de Concepcion 2–1 Universidad de Chile

Universidad de Concepcion

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Universidad de Chile

N. Orellana 71'

P. Rubio 60'

M. Rodríguez 2'

3/16/2019

Primera División · Round 5Municipal de Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Universidad de Concepcion38%

×Draw27%

Universidad de Chile35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ConcepcionExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.20

Universidad de Concepcion

1.27

Universidad de Chile

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 119 away

1.21

creates per match

1.28

1.12

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.21

Universidad de Chile

1.28

allows per match

Universidad de Concepcion

1.12

Universidad de Chile

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Concepcion ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universidad de Concepcion or draw

65%

Universidad de Concepcion or Universidad de Chile

73%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

62%

Winning margin

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

17%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

72%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

36%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

14%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

70%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

34%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

52%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Concepcion at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.21 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universidad de Chile attack 1.28 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

38%

level

27%

Universidad de Chile scores more

35%

Universidad de Concepcion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Universidad de Concepcion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Oroz

Universidad de Chile · M

8.4

Match Events

2'

M. Rodríguez↳ J. Martínez

21'

Hugo Droguett

36'

Matías Rodríguez

46'

N. Oroz← P. Parra

60'

P. Rubio↳ N. Maturana

61'

Diego Carrasco

68'

G. Torres← Á. Henríquez

71'

N. Orellana↳ H. Droguett

76'

F. Arancibia← M. Campos

83'

Alejandro Camargo

90'

Nicolas Orellana

90+7'

F. Portillo← N. Orellana

90+3'

J. Huentelaf← N. Maturana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadUniversidad

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots18

2Corners6

10Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots18

3On Target8

11Off Target8

2Blocked2

8Inside Box10

8Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

373Total Passes342

261Accurate Passes240

70%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1