Universidad de Chile 2–0 Universidad de Concepcion

Universidad de Chile

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad de Concepcion

R. Lenis 64', 52'

1/3/2021

Primera División · Round 27Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Universidad de Chile52%

×Draw25%

Universidad de Concepcion24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad de ChileExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Concepcion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.04

Universidad de Chile

1.65

Universidad de Concepcion

1.04

Universidad de Chile creates 59% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 44 away

1.57

creates per match

1.11

0.98

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Universidad de Chile

1.57

Universidad de Concepcion

1.11

allows per match

Universidad de Chile

0.98

Universidad de Concepcion

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad de Chile ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Universidad de Chile or draw

76%

Universidad de Chile or Universidad de Concepcion

75%

Draw or Universidad de Concepcion

48%

Winning margin

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

28%

Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

81%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

49%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

23%

Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals

65%

Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals

28%

Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

68%

Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad de Chile at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 115 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad de Chile attack 1.57 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.11 + Universidad de Chile defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Universidad de Chile scores more

52%

level

25%

Universidad de Concepcion scores more

24%

Universidad de Chile at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Lenis

Universidad de Chile · M

9.3

Match Events

12'

34'

45'

45'

52'

64'

R. Lenis↳ P. Aránguiz

71'

A. Ramírez← M. Quinteros

77'

S. Galani← G. Espinoza

79'

J. Patiño← J. Carreño

82'

J. Martínez← W. Montillo

82'

N. Guerra← P. Aránguiz

88'

A. San Martín← H. Cavero

90'

Luis Mago

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversidadUniversidad

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots18

3Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots18

4On Target4

7Off Target7

3Blocked7

9Inside Box11

5Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

448Total Passes373

358Accurate Passes284

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0